On this Picostat.com statistics page, you will find information about the UKDriverDeaths data set which pertains to Road Casualties in Great Britain 1969–84. The UKDriverDeaths data set is found in the datasets R package. You can load the UKDriverDeaths data set in R by issuing the following command at the console data("UKDriverDeaths"). This will load the data into a variable called UKDriverDeaths. If R says the UKDriverDeaths data set is not found, you can try installing the package by issuing this command install.packages("datasets") and then attempt to reload the data. If you need to download R, you can go to the R project website. You can download a CSV (comma separated values) version of the UKDriverDeaths R data set. The size of this file is about 3,608 bytes.
Road Casualties in Great Britain 1969–84
UKDriverDeaths is a time series giving the monthly totals
of car drivers in
Great Britain killed or seriously injured Jan 1969 to Dec 1984.
Compulsory wearing of seat belts was introduced on 31 Jan 1983.
Seatbelts is more information on the same problem.
Seatbelts is a multiple time series, with columns
car drivers killed.
front-seat passengers killed or seriously injured.
rear-seat passengers killed or seriously injured.
number of van (‘light goods vehicle’)
0/1: was the law in effect that month?
Harvey, A.C. (1989)
Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.
Cambridge University Press, pp. 519–523.
Durbin, J. and Koopman, S. J. (2001) Time Series Analysis by
State Space Methods. Oxford University Press.
Harvey, A. C. and Durbin, J. (1986) The effects of seat belt
legislation on British road casualties: A case study in structural
time series modelling. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society
series B, 149, 187–227.
## work with pre-seatbelt period to identify a model, use logs
work <- window(log10(UKDriverDeaths), end = 1982+11/12)
par(mfrow = c(3, 1))
plot(work); acf(work); pacf(work)
par(mfrow = c(1, 1))
(fit <- arima(work, c(1, 0, 0), seasonal = list(order = c(1, 0, 0))))
z <- predict(fit, n.ahead = 24)
ts.plot(log10(UKDriverDeaths), z$pred, z$pred+2*z$se, z$pred-2*z$se,
lty = c(1, 3, 2, 2), col = c("black", "red", "blue", "blue"))## now see the effect of the explanatory variables
X <- Seatbelts[, c("kms", "PetrolPrice", "law")]
X[, 1] <- log10(X[, 1]) - 4
arima(log10(Seatbelts[, "drivers"]), c(1, 0, 0),
seasonal = list(order = c(1, 0, 0)), xreg = X)
Dataset imported from https://www.r-project.org.